The NBER met via conference call on Friday, November 28th, and determined that the U.S. economy had peaked in December 2007, and since has been in recession. 

The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met by conference call on Friday, November 28. The committee maintains a chronology of the beginning and ending dates (months and quarters) of U.S. recessions. The committee determined that a peak in economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in December 2007. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in November 2001 and the beginning of a recession. The expansion lasted 73 months; the previous expansion of the 1990s lasted 120 months.

 

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A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators. A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion.

While most economists define recession as two consecutive quarters of declining Gross Domestic Product, the NBER’s definition of recession is more loosely based on their own chronological records of production, employment, income and other indicators.  They have determined that the U.S. Economy hit a peak in December 2007, and therefore have since been in a recession based on that peak.

Read the full NBER article here.

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Tags: Economy, gdp, NBER, peak, recession